Regional Economic Performance and Prospects: Progress Towards a Resilient Future

Regional Economic
Performance and Prospects:
Progress Towards a
Resilient Future
Mr. Ian Durant
Director, Economics Department

The region has largely emerged
from some of the most severe
economic shocks in recent
history—COVID-19, supply
chain disruptions exacerbated
by geopolitical tensions, and
the high inflation that followed.
2024 in Review
Regional Economic Performance and Prospects: Progress Towards a Resilient Future | ANNUAL NEWS CONFERENCE 2025

Borrowing Member Countries Economic Performance
Excluding Guyana, overall regional growth slowed to
1.7%, reflecting the normalisation of economic
conditions.
Regional GDP Growth Trends
When Guyana’s standout performance is included,
regional growth increases to 8.8% in 2024, up from 6.6%
in 2023.
Guyana’s Growth far Outpaces Global Trends
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
4.3
2.5 1.7
Regional
Regional Excl. Guyana
Service Exporters
Commodity Exporters Excl. Guyana
GDP
Growth
(%)
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
9.8
6.6 8.8
63.3
33.0
43.5
Regional
Regional Excl. Guyana
Guyana
World
GDP
Growth
(%)

Borrowing Member Country Economic Performance
Service-exporting economies grew at an average rate
of 1.6% in 2024, as most countries expanded at a
slower pace, compared to earlier post-pandemic gains.
Service Exporters
Commodity-exporting economies like Suriname and
Trinidad and Tobago continued their modest recovery,
having not yet returned to pre-COVID levels of output.
Commodity Exporters
GUY SUR TT ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE HAI JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TCI
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
43.5
2.0 1.9
4.6 4.8
1.8
4.0
7.5 6.3
2.8 3.5 3.7
-4.2
2.1 3.7
1.4
3.9 4.6 5.6
2023 2024
Commodity Exporting
BMCs
Service Exporting
BMCs

Performance Underpinned by Growth in Tourism and Construction
Collectively, stayover arrivals from Jan. to Sep. 2024
approximately totalled 6.8 Mn, representing an 11%
increase over the same period in 2023
Strong Growth in Stay-over Arrivals
Governments across the region prioritised investments in
critical infrastructure. Private sector investments also
helped drive growth in tourism-related construction.
Expansion in Construction Activity
ANG ANT BAH BAR BZE BVI CAY DOM GRE GUY JAM MON SKN SLU SVG TT TCI
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2019 2023 2024
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Percent
Change
(%)

The Impacts of CC and Natural Hazards
Hurricane Beryl
Hurricane Beryl's impact in July 2024
had varying consequences including
disruptions to agricultural production and
cruise call cancellations.
Grenada and St. Vincent and the
Grenadines also experienced
substantial infrastructural damage.
Image: OSV News/ Reuters/ Arthur Daniel

Inflation and Labour Market Dynamics
There was further easing of inflation in the Region from
its peak in 2022. However, even as inflation recedes, price
levels are still higher than in pre-COVID periods.
Slowing Regional Inflation
Unemployment rates were relatively low by historical
standards supported by growth in tourism, construction
and other services.
Declining Unemployment Rates
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Regional Average (excl. HAI & SUR) ECCU
Bahamas Barbados
Belize Virgin Islands (British)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0 BAR BZE CAY
GRE SLU TT

Central Government Debt (% GDP)
2021 2022 2023 2024
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
59.5
52.1 51.2 48.4
Regional Commodity Exporters Service Exporters
The 2024 fiscal outturn
for most BMCs was
generally positive. Many
Borrowing Member
Countries were able to
maintain or slightly
increase primary
surpluses. As a result, the
regional debt ratio fell to
48.4% of GDP in 2024 from
51.2% in 2023

Credit Rating Upgrades in 5 BMCs
CariA-
Barbados (Fitch)
Anguilla (CariCRIS)
Belize (Moody’s)
Jamaica (Fitch) Suriname (Moody’s)
CariBBB+
B+
B
Caa1
Caa2
BB-
B+
Caa1
Caa3

External Sector Developments
In the external sector, higher import
payments in some countries dampened
the positive impact of increased tourism
receipts on their current accounts.
However, reserve positions remain
healthy. The financial sector remained
broadly stable, supporting favourable
credit conditions.

2025 Outlook
Regional
GDP growth
in 2025
4.6%
*2.5% excluding Guyana
Commodity Exporters
GDP growth
in 2025
7.6%
*3.1% excluding Guyana
Service Exporters
GDP growth
in 2025
2.2%

Risks to the Outlook – External
1 2 3
Potential
Slowdowns in
Major Trading
Partners
Geopolitical
Tensions
Heightened
Uncertainty

Risks to the Outlook – Domestic
1 2 3
Natural Hazards Policy Changes
Project Delays

Higher growth is necessary
to reduce poverty, bridge
inequalities, and elevate the
standard of living.
Development Imperatives

Climate Change Resilience
We must redouble efforts to strengthen
infrastructure, improve disaster preparedness,
and integrate climate considerations into every
facet of development planning.

Enhancing Diversification
We must build dynamic, internationally
competitive economies. This requires us to
modernise our infrastructure, build out
regional supply chains and connect with
international markets.

Fiscal Discipline
Fiscal discipline, risk management and
strong institutions remain cornerstones of
sustainable growth. Maintaining prudent
public fiscal management, while prioritising
investments in productive infrastructure
and the social well-being of our people is
critical.

The road ahead is challenging,
but it is also rich with
promise. CDB stands ready to
support our BMCs as they
pursue these imperatives.
CDB Stands Ready

This publication will provide deeper
insights into the trends, challenges,
and opportunities discussed today.
Coming Soon!
Caribbean Economic Review and
Outlook

Regional Economic Performance and Prospects: Progress Towards a Resilient Future

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